Zelenskys plan to defeat Russia
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Foreword: There would be little point in arguing over who is right and who is wrong over the conflict in Ukraine. I say this because everyone thinks that they are right, and everyone has their reasons for thinking it.
100 Days
At the time of writing this, the conflict has been running for 100 days. There are three main protagonists. Russia, Ukraine and the USA. Within the USA contingent, we must include NATO and the EU because they are inextricably linked.
Zelenskyy tells the world
On Monday, 23 August 2021, President Volodymir Zelenskyy stood before the world with a piece of paper in his hand and announced:
“I will personally do everything possible to return Crimea so that it becomes part of Europe together with Ukraine.”
Russian Troop Movements
Russian Troop Movements were reported in an article by The Washington Post on 30 October 2021.
“A renewed build-up of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.”
Russian proposal for talks
On Friday, 17 December 2021, Russia presented a proposal for talks requesting security guarantees. The requests included a ban on Ukraine applying for NATO membership and a limit to the deployment of troops and weapons to NATO’s eastern borders, in effect returning NATO forces to where they were stationed in 1997, before an eastward expansion.
The eight-point draft treaty was released by Russia’s foreign ministry as its forces massed within striking distance of Ukraine’s borders. Moscow said ignoring its interests would lead to a “military response” similar to the Cuban missile crisis of 1962.
The White House press secretary, Jen Psaki, said the US had seen proposals from Russia to start talks and was speaking with its European allies and partners, Reuters reported.
“There will be no talks on European security without our European allies and partners,” Psaki told reporters.
The Russian deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, said on Friday that there was no deadline for talks but that Russia wants to begin negotiations “without delays and without stalling”.
This framework of proposals from Russia was subsequently rejected by the West and cited as “unacceptable.”
The Invasion
185 days following Zelenskyy’s announcement on 23 August 2021, on Thursday, 24 February 2022, Russian forces launched a partial invasion of Ukraine. We are now in the current situation where Russia is in control of approximately 20% of the territory.
What was Zelenskyy’s plan?
Not being a member of NATO excluded him from the benefits of NATO’s Article 5Collective Protection protocols. Not being a member of the EU excluded him from the benefits of the EU’s Article 42.7 Mutual Defence protocols.
It appears that his plan was to seek assistance from the USA and neighbouring countries, the majority of which are both NATO and EU members, and as such are hand-tied in how far they can involve themselves in a physical conflict unless they are attacked first.
The only logical answer, and we can see this playing out today, is for the USA, NATO & the EU to provide Zelenskyy with as much assistance as possible, but stopping short of actually directly engaging with Russian forces on the battlefield.
Prior to the Invasion
For months prior to the invasion, there was a gradual and visible build-up of Russian troops on Ukraine’s eastern borders with Russia and its northern borders with Belarus. This was widely reported on a daily basis. Many warnings were issued by Intelligence Services that the possibility of an attack on Ukraine was imminent, but these appeared to have been ignored.
No-fly Zone
The sensible thing would have been to establish an enforceable “No-fly Zone,” over Ukraine before a single Russian boot was placed on the ground. But this didn’t happen. This critical opportunity was lost and there is no possibility that a “No-fly Zone,” could now be implemented without engaging in a full-scale direct conflict with Russia.
War of Attrition
The situation has now turned into a “War of attrition“. Not until President Putin and President Zelenskyy enter into meaningful discussions will the conflict end. Zelenskyy and his supporters are adamant that Putin is not getting a single grain of Ukrainian soil, but according to Zelenskyy’s latest statements, Putin already has control of some 20% of Ukrainian territory.
The Paper Tigers
The USA/NATO/EU element is doing what it can by way of financial and trade sanctions against Russia. It is also pumping in as much Military Hardware and other intelligence-based assistance as it feels comfortable with, without hitting that critical point where Russia is forced into a wider escalation involving NATO/EU countries and the potential for the use of Nuclear Weapons.
Summary
Zelenskyy is clearly frustrated. He must have seen that the game was lost the minute the invasion began and the critical “No-fly Zone,” was missing.
Zelenskyy has announced to the world what his intention was for Crimea. His own Military isn’t big enough to take on and win a war with Russia. He simply doesn’t have enough people or equipment for this to happen. There is absolutely no lack of courage and determination within the Ukrainian military, and the assistance they have received has certainly helped to make things more difficult for the Russian forces, but eventually, unless Zelenskyy is prepared to sacrifice the last drop of Ukrainian blood, he will have to think of his people, swallow his pride and sit down and negotiate with Putin.
Nuclear Holocaust
The only other option would be for the USA/NATO/EU to physically engage Russia in the air, on the land and on and under the sea. This would most likely escalate into a Nuclear War in Europe, rapidly extending to the USA.
Iain Muir
Scottish/British Photojournalist – Researcher – Pilot (A&H) – CAA Licensed Drone Operator – Commentator – NUJ Member – SCTS Registered
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